What can secure the
future of small rural towns in Western Australia's agricultural regions? It’s a question that has
been bothering Wheatbelt residents, farmers, government, community and economic
development professionals for years.
The region’s main
economic driver is from agricultural commodities and these commodities are
affected by the volatility of global weather patterns and global economic
tumult. Therefore, the future of the current economic driver in the Wheatbelt
is largely beyond the control of the people in the region.
So a catch 22 has
developed. The current unpredictable economic driver needs to be replaced or
enhanced by a more predictable one. Yet, because the current economic driver is
volatile, investing in small towns like Living Communities' pilot town, Goomalling can be seen as risky and
therefore investors become hard to attract.
But to find the
answer, we may have to disregard the economic textbooks because the fundamental
assumptions made in mainstream economic models may be flawed.
Here’s why.
In the 1950s an
economist named Robert Solow won the Nobel Peace Prize for arguing that for
every 1% of increased labour productivity 0.7% showed up as economic growth in
GDP and for every 1% increase in capital investment, 0.3% showed up as growth
in GDP.
Despite his Nobel, Solow's model couldn’t account for was the enormous discrepancy between the growth it
predicted and actual growth in the real world. It seemed there was much more
growth occurring in the real world and so the ‘residual’ of nearly 75% of the
total growth couldn’t be sufficiently explained by economists.
Now in the 21st
century, natural scientists have actually worked out what was missing in Solow’s
equations. The difference between Solow’s growth and real world growth can be explained
by energy. And the cheaper the energy, the better. In fact, one scientist,
Professor Robyn Ayres of Carnegie-Mellon University in the United States worked
out that a 1% increase in energy actually accounted for 0.7% of economic
growth, not labour as Solow had assumed.
So what does that tell
us then, if it is cheap energy that makes a more substantial contribution than labour
and capital to economic growth.
Could the missing
economic driver of the Wheatbelt actually be cheap energy? Cheaper energy,
combined with a pre-existing rail network would attract industry to the region
and in doing so, would give the Wheatbelt a competitive advantage over other
regions.
For example, it’s one
thing to have a corporation install 270MW of energy in a wheat field near your
town that employs 5-10 people, plus a one off economic benefit during
construction. The energy generated from this solution is fed into the grid to
the usual centralised retailer who essentially sells it back to the town. In
other words, nothing much changes in the long run. There is no competitive
advantage for the town derived from having such a facility close by. You cannot
use it to attract further business investment. The energy created is owned by
outsiders and shipped out for others to use.
However, it is a
completely different thing to have 10MW or less of energy owned, in part, by local
people who can use the energy produced as leverage to attract longer-term
economic benefits.
The community solution
could attract further investment by being in control of the pricing of its own
energy. It is easy then to see how this would create greater long-term wealth
and employment opportunities for the entire community than would the corporate
solution.
A corporate energy
utility has a business model designed to make a profit and return it to the investors.
A community owned energy utility’s business model could be designed to keep
prices low for locally owned industry and residents. It could also generate
revenue from power sold into the grid.
So the primary purpose
of a community energy co-op would be to maintain economic competitiveness for
the entire community. It would return benefits to the investors (the community)
largely by providing lower priced energy that, as we have seen from the
research, will develop the economy.
Such thinking is at
the heart of a submission to the Wheatbelt Development Commission’s Wheatbelt
Regional Strategy Directions Paper, from Zuraw Investment’s, Leon Surawski.
Mr Surawski’s
submission details how Wheatbelt communities can become energy exporters
through a distributed network of renewable energy power plants.
A community owned
energy model is far superior to a corporate owned model for the Wheatbelt. Community leaders need to understand the
benefits of local versus corporate ownership if their towns are to truly
benefit from a distributed energy network and if the Wheatbelt is to build a
new economic driver.